Less than 60 shopping days to go until Christmas…

… and the question on everyone’s lips that I talk to is, “What kind of Christmas will it be for the food retailer?” or “Will it be Christmas 2010 that drags us out of recession?”. My own empirical (non-scientific) research is that there is actually a great deal of optimism out there at present based  on the last 2-3 month’s sales. At the speciality food show in September I must have talked to around 20 gourmet food suppliers and producers, only one said that their sales were down on last year. In a further conversation with a supplier last week when I passed on this statistic, he claimed that I was being lied to by the people I talked to as it was in their interest to pretend that things were better than they are. I actually disagree with him. I think we are fortunate in this industry to have a majority of honest and straight-forward colleagues, and they will tell it as it is.

My own view is that this Christmas will be stronger than last year – and I don’t think that was as bad as people thought it was going to be. It has been helped by many of the larger speciality retailers getting their displays out earlier and maximizing the opportunity for selling gifts in the run-up to Christmas. Our advance Christmas sales were 20% up on last year – and we have still had an avalanche of orders in the last couple of weeks from those that really should have got organized a bit earlier in the year! I think confidence is spreading. The smaller retailers have seen the fantastic displays at some of the larger ones which has given them the confidence to order.

One potential fly in the ointment (although easily resolved) is the impending postal strike. How a group of people with secure jobs can jeopardize the jobs of others during a recession beggars belief. I am sure there are faults on both sides but these issues can always be resolved by talking, which neither side is prepared to do without conditions. If your business is still using cheques which go in the post it is time to move into the 21st century. We got rid of our cheque books years ago. Even more reason to pay by BACS now as most banks are transferring the money the same day to the creditor’s account. “The cheque is in the post” line never did carry much weight, but even less so now. Make life easier for your suppliers by paying them straight into their bank account. This is also a far greener option as well.

One last thought. Christmas Cards. Are they a dying tradition? Certainly within business I think they should be. “Bah, humbug”, I hear you cry! As I mentioned above, they have dubious environmental connotations and this year are not guaranteed to get there anyway. And, following on from last week’s post, I would personally far rather have someone pick up the phone to wish me a “Happy Christmas” than send what can be a meaningless card with colour photocopied signatures!